Is Tim Cook the right spokesman for Apple?

What is the common thread with all the Apple news since September?

Apple, the company is doing very well. Q1 2013 earnings released today, 1/23/2013, and by normal measures, Apple is doing great. Record sales of iPhones and iPads. Revenue and profit that would be the envy of any company.

Yet the stock is down $55 in after hours to $460 from a recent high of $705. Seems like a bit of an over reaction to record earnings, no?

So whats happens to Apple’s stock mojo?

Once perspective is that marketing is whats missing from Apple. Steve Jobs was really the marketing genius. Everything he did was focused on marketing. Secrecy? That was meant to build excitement.

Apologies? Opportunity to tout a products benefits with lip service to any actual apology.

Steve Jobs wrote the book on giving people less and having them pay more. Fewer product choices, fewer releases, fewer options, higher prices. It worked beautifully. People loved the clean simplicity.

Tim Cook has never played the part of the visionary. He’s the consummate operations guy. He knows how to keep a well oiled machine operating at peak efficiency. Coming up with inspirational vision for technology gadgets is not in his DNA. Likewise coming up with clear, consistent, compelling marketing messages is not his forte.

There have been several stumbling blocks that have each provided clear signs.

• Hiring John Browett to lead retail was a baffling move. Why would you place a Kmart style retail head in charge of the Apple retail empire known for high service and a premium experience?
• Providing a stock dividend. Its amazing to see stock analysts suggest that the solution to Apple’s problems is to increase its stock dividend and initiate a stock buyback. The dividend sits at $2.85. Is that a meaningful use of cash when the stock has dropped $245? I’d rather have the stock appreciation than throwing away hard earned money as a dividend. Apple isn’t a utility company with a guaranteed revenue stream. Its an innovation company. That money needs to be used to remake industries, to innovate, to create what most can’t even imagine. With $160 BILLION in cash, Apple could buy most companies, they could remake whatever industry they chose. A dividend is simply throwing the money away.
• Giving the keynotes. This is the most telling. Tim is not a technology evangelist. That is apparent. It does not make sense for him to be driving keynotes trying to sell the world on new products. The fact that he is giving the keynotes means that he is unwilling to step aside to let someone else have the lime light. If he doesn’t cede the attention during a keynote, he certainly won’t during product creation.
• Apologizing for Apple maps. Not only was this a horrific idea, but the way it was done was even worse. Steve Jobs would have spent the majority of the apology as an excuse to brag about the benefits of maps. He would have sung its virtues and have put an apology as a footnote. If Tim Cook couldn’t muster any positive comment about Apple’s maps, how can they expect anyone else to? Why bother to release it if he’s that ashamed of it?
• Refresh all the products right before the christmas rush, only to not be able to make enough of them. Why bother? Why not wait until after christmas when you can make enough. iMac in particular should have waited. There were other reasons to release the iPhone 5 & iPad Mini.

Unfortunately, the conclusion is that Apple needs a new visionary to be the marketing face of the company. Someone who can turn every move into a marketing opportunity.

Sadly, Google and Samsung are even out marketing Apple. Samsung’s billions in advertising works wonders against the deafening silence that now befalls Apple.

The first quarter of 2013 promises to be quiet. All the products recently refreshed. No venue until WWDC in June.

Apple needs to get its mojo back. It needs to market itself and its products again. It can’t continue to let Samsung and Google define the brand image for Apple.

Apple ditching Intel?

Rumors are circulating that Apple is contemplating ditching Intel for ARM. Interesting that Intel is giving money to manufacturers to help them develop Macbook Air competitors. Why would they do that if Intel is inside every Macbook Air?

To me, its clear that Apple has been moving towards making Mac OS X run on touch based tablets since Snow Leopard.
I’m thinking this fall might be the announce. Cook said they were working on a major new launch this quarter. I’m surprised there’s been so little writing about it.

I predict another device that splits the difference between a Macbook Air and an iPad. I’m thinking a 10-11″ touch screen likely with an optional keyboard, running Lion but via a touch interface.

It might be an ARM processor. Maybe it would run iOS, iphone/iPad apps in some sort of compatability mode, or Mac apps recompiled in XCode to be Intel/ARM…. Universal apps, like they used to be, except not powerpc/intel but ARM/Intel.

Anyone disagree?

Can Android be compared with iPhone 4?

Android and android phones used to pale in comparison to the iPhone. For the last 3 years its hasn’t been much of a competition.

But now, the latest crop of phones have caught up. They are now comparable. They are worse than the iPhone in some ways and better than the iPhone in some ways. For the first time, you can say its a matter of personal preference.

Android has been advancing rapidly. Will be interesting to see if they will be able to pull well ahead of iPhone or if the unorganized mass of companies will infight enough to never eclipse Apple.

In my opinion… some of the ways iPhone is better than Android phones include:

• Better fit and finish. Pretty much subtle little things… but everywhere. Every little detail tends to be better on iPhone. Android phones maybe good, or good enough, but no where near as well built as the iPhone.
• Customer service. Android phones get superseded every few months. They don’t care to support or upgrade older phones. Unlike Apple.
• Software polish: iPhone looks better. User experience is better. HTC in particular may make things look flashy… until you use them for a while and they don’t seem a useful or functional.
• Price: Believe it or not, you get a better deal with Apple today. 16GB vs. 8GB for most Android phones. Higher res display, higher quality.

Areas where Android is significantly better than iPhone include:

• Choice of carrier. Android is available for all carriers. In the US, Verizon tends to have much better coverage than AT&T. But whichever carrier you like, there’s an Android phone there… or will be soon.
• Turn by turn navigation. Its awesome. Nuff said.
• Voice recognition. Anywhere you can type, you can have it recognize your voice. Usually works amazingly well.
• Browser. When I first tried Android, I thought the browser was much worse than iPhone and generally unusable. But either I was mistaken or Android 2.1 has improved upon it. It is fast, looks great, and can zoom into text better, somehow able to reflow the text making it easy to read with characters as big as you want.
• Flash: I hate flash. But its really nice to have it when you need it. Makes the iPhone seem crippled.
• File storage. This is definitely a techie pet peeve. But I really like that on Android I can save files, from the browser or from the internet or other apps. And I can then view the files choosing the app, similar to a PC. It allows me to do things I simply can’t do on iPhone, like download videos in background so that I can watch and rewatch them whenever I please, no cable sync required.
• Google integration. Google calendar syncs over the air, no cable, no PC needed. Gmail works well. Google Voice is very nice with free text transcription of your messages.

Android weaknesses (or strengths):

• Email. Drives me nuts. How hard can it be to have a decent email client. K-9 is a 3rd party email which seems to be the best, but it doesn’t even support cut and paste. iPhone wins big time for email.
• Cut and paste. Typical free for all. No common operating system defined way to do it. Some apps support it, some don’t. Way to access varies by app. Similar issue with much of Android. No enforced consistency. Often a curse.
• Multitasking: Its better and yet worse than Apples. Being true multitasking, you can get apps that do useful things that can’t easily be done on iPhone. Even iPhone 4. But again, its not well enforced. Rogue applications can abuse the system. Its left to the user to uninstall apps that aren’t well behaved. The operating design itself is brilliant. Superior to iPhone… if only apps were properly coded to its conventions. Conventions which aren’t enforced and can easily be ignored.

Whats more surprising is simply that Android can even be compared to iPhone. The apps in general aren’t as polished, but they’re often good enough. You can find Android equivalents for most things you can do on the iPhone, with the possible exception of games. But even the game front is getting closer.

Active competition between Google’s ecosystem and Apple’s. Hard to tell who will win between them, but almost definitely, the consumer will win… and is already winning.

Apple’s downfall

Apple has changed the developer terms to prevent use of cross platform development tools. This change was snuck in unannounced yet has caused the greatest uproar.

Many believe this is an attack at Adobe. I believe it is at least as much an attack against Google’s Android. Apple wants to prevent the creation of cross platform mobile applications. They’re trying to do everything they can to prevent developers from writting for Android. It might work while Apple has 60+% marketshare… or it might not if developers have moved to Android anyway.

But the problem is worse than that. It is the latest in an ever increasing series of attempt for Apple to exert unreasonable control over its customers and partners with the express purpose of squeezing out as much profit as possible while locking them in to the Apple platform. Locking in not by innovation, nor because Apple products are superior. Instead they’re now resorting to building disfunctional products that disable the ability to work with non-Apple facilities, using legal terms and conditions to threaten action if behavior doesn’t meet their approval, and to sue when competitors get too close to Apple’s jewels.

Recent actions include:

• Appstore: Steve Jobs originally billed the restrictions on the store altruistically. Meant to protect the carrier’s network from failure and to prevent malware. This has twisted over time to become a blatant filter, removing anything that Apple decides it doesn’t like or might be competitive with current or future products. Apple has come to enjoy this level of control over its users.
• iPad: The iPad is a powerful full function computer. But Apple has tasted the drug of total control with the app store. They purposely neutered a full function computer so that consumers are only allowed to obtain software for it from Apple’s app store. You can see where this evolution is going. Can a Mac app store be far behind?
• Terms: Adobe Flash and any 3rd party interpreters on the iPhone are a threat to Apple’s control and 30% of sales revenue stream from the appstore. Apple doesn’t want to allow users to circumvent their control over what users can run. When Adobe tried to get around it by cross compiling, Apple changed the terms… after Adobe had spent millions to develop their product.
• Android: Apple finally has a worthy competitor. 3 years in the making but finally here. Does Apple compete by producing a superior product? Sadly no. Their reaction is to sue HTC as a protected way to sue Google. The change in developer terms was not only meant to hurt Adobe, but to prevent mobile applications to be written for Android. Apple wants developers locked into Apple tools and wants them to have a hard time porting to Android.

Steve Jobs has let success go to his head. The iPad is a joke. These terms and how whimsically Apple changes them, make it unreasonable for a business to invest in making iPhone/iPad software. Yet somehow they think they can get away with this.

Maybe its inevitable. Small, rapidly growing companies historically often succeed against larger competitors by being more open, giving more choice and benefits to consumers and partners.

But eventually, if they become large enough, they become consumed with protecting their own turf. They no longer come up with sufficient innovation to drive growth. They turn to protecting their turf, put up walls, try to control and harm anyone who dares to challenge their products.

Ultimately its a loosing strategy but may signal a maturing company. No longer growing. Stagnant at best, or a slow decline.

IBM became a mainframe monopoly. To this day they still fiercely defend their mainframe turf.
Microsoft with Windows and Office. Seen any innovation there?
Now Apple. A amazingly lame iPad, terms which exhibit an unthinkable hubris, sue your competitors (HTC/Google).

I can’t recall a company changing their ways once this inward focus consumes them. Too hard to give up the remembrance of success. Likely Apple and Steve Jobs will be in denial for many years.

Apple’s recent success has been ignited when they made platforms more open, not closed.

• The move to Intel processors didn’t create a wall around Mac OS, instead it welcomed Windows to run native on the machine.
• The original iPhone broke the choke hold carriers had on consumers by controlling what websites could be visited and what applications could be run while charging unrealistic prices always measured in dollars each month.
• The iPod success was launched when Steve Jobs negotiated more reasonable prices and greatly reduced DRM restrictions for users, provided users with more control over their own music.

Sad that Steve has forgotten a key reason why Apple has become successful and chosen to lock consumers and developers in by only obtaining software from the appstore and having the hubris to attempt such heinous developer terms.

I had hoped for better.

Related posts:

Stop the Madness Steve Jobs

iphone agreement bans flash compiler

steve jobs response on section 3-3-1

Google’s Nexus One ad. Abuse of power?

Visitors to Google.com today are presented with a small but significant ad for the Nexus One. I don’t know if they’ve ever used the base search page for advertising before, but it could be worrisome.

Google has made their mark and been successful at least partly because of their ‘do no evil’ motto. Their advertising has always been low keyed and pertinent to what you’re doing. Not random banner flash ads in popup windows on random things you don’t care about. Usually subtle little text ads remarkably relevant to what you’re trying to find.

Now Google is abusing their power buy advertising in the most important place on the web, where no one else can advertise at any price. And the ad is not targeted in any way. Its a blanket ad for everyone regardless of interest.

This hints at the eventual abuse of power that the Google empire allows. When all searches run through Google, you run a Google browser on your Google operating system tied to your Google phone, all your ads are served by Google’s Admob, your videos come from Google’s Youtube… When they tie together all of your activities on your PC, phone (including voice), when they run voice recognition on your phone conversations and index them for your benefit…
Too much power. Like big brother watching everything you say and do. Indexing, cross referencing. Able to sell this information for all sorts of advertising. To the highest bidder, or for their own uses.
Even now, they could easily check who does searches about cell phones, and target ads on Admod to appear on your iPhone to sell you a Nexus one.
Simply spooky. Privacy erodes one step at a time, often without notice, until its too late and the genie can’t be put back in the bottle.

Hard drives not so safe for archival

I’ve had a debate before online on the relative safety of various types of media for long term archival and storage. The debate has raged on the longevity of optical media, CD, DVD. I haven’t found a great consensus regarding optical media, other than if properly cared for, treating them gently and avoiding exposure to sunlight, they can last for years.

or

The other media that is often mentioned these days is the use of hard drives. There are some points to be made regarding their longevity.

• The protocols used to communicate with hard drives evolves over time, generally more quickly than optical media. ATA, ATA133, SATA, SATA2 and external drives, USB2, Firewire, eSATA, FW800. The point being that they evolve over time and you may not be able to access it in the future.
• Fragility. Hard drives are fragile. Can’t handle them too rough, careful to avoid static electricity.
• Time. Hard drives are mechanical with moving parts. Over time lubricants can migrate and degrade making them less reliable.

I’ve made some of these points before, but never actually experienced any issues. In fact I have never had a personal hard drive fail, although I have had many corporate issue hard drives fail.

There’s always a first time.

I went through my stack of old hard drives to see what I could use.

I have 15GB and 30GB drive made in 2000 that are ATA, but both failed to communicate properly with my external enclosure.

I have recently been using a 120GB Maxtor drive that was made in 2005. I thought that was pretty recent. I’ve used it extensively of late and decided to copy some files to archive.

A few days later I went to access the files, powered up the drive to be met with total silence. The hard drive failed to spin up.

I ended up twisting the drive rapidly trying to get the platter moving just after turning it on. It eventually did the trick and it reluntantly spun up. The drive worked well enough to copy all my critical files off of it. The entire next day the drive worked fine, spinning up and down all day. I let it cool off over night to be greeted again by total silence and no spinup. With the twisting trick I was able to get it to spin up but its not having errors reading from the drive.

This has taught me that the possible issues with hard drive archival are real. Optical media is looking more promising. Lowest prices I could find today include DVD+RW for $0.67 each, DVD+DL for $0.97, BD-RE25GB for $7, BD-RE50GB for $25.

iPhone 3GS announced

At WWDC today, Apple announced the updated iPhone 3GS.

For the same $199 as before (and as the Palm Pre), you now get double the memory (16GB), much faster performance, support for 7.2mbps HSDPA, compass, voice control (!), auto focus (not fixed focus like the pre) 3MP camera with auto macro, and excellent video capability (VGA at 30fps).

The current 8GB 3G model will still be sold for $99 and the new top of the line is 32GB for $299.

Seems good enough to ward off the Palm Pre. The Pre is now much less capable for the same or more money (rebate required) with almost no applications available for it.

However, I wonder who will buy this new phone. Anyone who’s wanted an iPhone in the last 2 years would have bought one by now and it probably still locked into their existing contract with steep upgrade prices.

As far as I’ve been able to tell the prices are as follows:

Model	New contract	In AT&T contract around 1yr	just started new AT&T contract
8GB iPhone 3G	$99	$299	$499
16GB iPhone 3GS	$199	$399	$599
32GB iPhone 3GS	$299	$499	$699

I don’t see most current iPhone users upgrading for a while. The only phone that seems appealing is the $99 iPhone 3G for those who see the initial price as an impediment. However, the monthly service fee with the $30/mo data plan is still there and is the more serious cost issue.

What didn’t make it:

• Front facing camera. I think I would really like this. Dick Tracy style video phone calls.
• Rumored AT&T lower price for limited data plan.
• Tethering plan from AT&T

On an unrelated note, they made surprising but helpful updates to the Macbook Pro line adding FW800 into the Macbook Pro 13. But conspicuously missing were any updates to the white Macbook.